Can Bitcoin Reach $1 Million?

Bitcoin's incredible journey has consistently defied expectations. What once seemed like a pipe dream—BTC price hitting six figures—occurred in January 2025 when the cryptocurrency surpassed the $100,000 mark to reach its $109,114 all-time high. With such milestones being approached, the buzz around an even more audacious target grows louder: could Bitcoin actually hit $1 million per coin?

This eye-watering figure captures the imagination, fuelled by Bitcoin's potential as digital gold, an inflation hedge, and a sound store of value asset. But are such projections grounded in reality or just speculative fantasy?

In this article, we'll explore the origins of the million-dollar Bitcoin narrative, meet some of its most vocal proponents, compare BTC's potential to flip gold, examine the macroeconomic shifts needed to make it happen, and discuss why focusing solely on price predictions can be risky.

Where Does the $1 Million BTC Projection Come From?

The idea of a million-dollar Bitcoin wasn't born in a boardroom or an academic paper; it exploded into the public consciousness thanks to one of the tech world's most colourful and controversial figures: John McAfee. The late antivirus software pioneer wasn't known for subtlety, and his BTC predictions were no exception.

In July 2017, McAfee grabbed headlines with a brazen tweet predicting Bitcoin would hit $500,000 within three years. He backed this claim with an infamous, unrepeatable pledge involving his own anatomy and national television should he be wrong. Never one to shy away, by November 2017, he doubled down, upping his forecast to $1 million per Bitcoin by the end of 2020, renewing his bizarre guarantee.

McAfee claimed sophisticated modelling backed his predictions, even citing a doctorate in point-set topology. However, his forecasts often missed the mark, like his short-term prediction of $15,000 BTC by June 2018. Ultimately, in January 2020, McAfee walked back his $1 million prediction, calling it a "ruse to onboard new users" and dismissing Bitcoin as "ancient technology." Despite the retraction and his notoriety, McAfee undeniably cemented the $1 million target in the crypto lexicon.

Who Else Is Backing the Million-Dollar Bitcoin Narrative?

McAfee may have been the most outlandish, but he's far from the only prominent figure eyeing a seven-figure Bitcoin. Several respected investors and analysts have made similarly bullish, albeit less anatomically risky, predictions:

• Cathie Wood: The influential CEO of ARK Invest said in February 2025 that her firm's "bull case" scenario projects Bitcoin reaching $1.5 million by 2030. This optimistic view is driven by increasing institutional adoption and Bitcoin's potential integration into the global financial system. ARK Invest's base case is still a hefty $710,000 by 2030, with even their bear case sitting at $300,000.

• Max Keiser: The broadcaster and Bitcoin maximalist stated back in June 2019 that the $1 million target, famously tied to John McAfee's prediction, was "no longer off the table." While maintaining confidence in that jaw-dropping figure, at the time he also shared more immediate forecasts, calling $100,000 "within sight" and setting a short-term target of $28,000, having held onto his bullish outlook even through the 2018 bear market.

• Balaji Srinivasan: The entrepreneur and former Coinbase CTO made waves in March 2023 with a highly publicised bet that Bitcoin would reach $1 million within just 90 days, driven by fears of hyperinflation and US banking instability. As BTC only rose modestly during that period, and Srinivasan conceded the $1 million bet early. He paid out $500,000 to his counterparty and donating the rest of the $500,000 and an extra $500,000 to poverty charity GiveDirectly and Bitcoin Core developers. Srinivasan stated his goal with the bet was to "send a provably costly signal" about economic risks, burning his own money to raise awareness.

• Samson Mow: The CEO of JAN3 reiterated his prediction in February 2025 that BTC would reach $1 million by the end of the year. He anticipates this surge won't be gradual but rather a "very short and violent upheaval" occurring over weeks or months, potentially driven by the "spectacular" failure of fiat currencies. Mow points to growing nation-state involvement in Bitcoin, citing Bhutan's mining activities as an indicator of looming "hyperbitcoinisation," and predicts countries will eventually issue sovereign debt to acquire BTC, mirroring corporate strategies like Strategy's (formerly known as MicroStrategy).

These predictions, while varying in timelines and rationales, share a common belief in Bitcoin's disruptive potential and its capacity for significant future price growth.

Could BTC Flip Gold?

A key pillar supporting the high Bitcoin price targets is the "digital gold" narrative. Both Bitcoin and gold are favoured by investors as stores of value, prized for their scarcity, durability, deflationary properties, and potential for long-term gains, especially during times of economic uncertainty or fiat currency devaluation. Gold has served this role for millennia, while BTC is the digital challenger.

Currently, gold's total market capitalisation dwarfs Bitcoin's. According to VALR co-founder and CEO Farzam Ehsani, if Bitcoin reached the same market cap as gold, it would imply a BTC price of around $899,000.

However, Farzam argues this might be conservative. If one believes that digital versions of assets or services tend to vastly outperform their analogue predecessors in the value they provide (think email versus post, streaming versus physical media), then Bitcoin as digital gold could potentially far exceed gold's market cap. The ultimate question, Farzam notes, isn't if, but when.

What Macroeconomic Shifts Could Pave the Way for $1 Million Bitcoin?

Reaching $1 million per coin isn't just about sentiment; it would likely require fundamental shifts in the global economic and financial landscape. Several key factors could contribute:

• Widespread institutional and governmental adoption: This is arguably the most crucial driver. Significant allocations from pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks would inject trillions into Bitcoin's market cap. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in early 2024 provided the rails for this, and moves like the US establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve signal growing state-level interest. Currently, public companies, private firms, governments, and institutions already hold roughly 13.35% of the total Bitcoin supply, a figure that would need to grow substantially.

• Increased corporate treasury allocation: More companies following the lead of firms like Strategy and Tesla by holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets as a reserve asset could add trillions in demand.

• Regulatory clarity and favourable frameworks: Clear, supportive, and crypto-friendly regulations in major economies would reduce uncertainty and encourage broader adoption by both institutions and retail investors. A perception of a friendlier regulatory environment has historically boosted prices.

• Significant growth in retail adoption: While institutional money is key, continued growth in retail ownership, particularly in emerging markets seeking alternatives to unstable local currencies, is also vital.

• Bitcoin fully displacing gold: If Bitcoin truly replaces gold as the world's premier non-sovereign store of value, capturing the majority of its $18 trillion market cap (and potentially more), the $1 million mark becomes mathematically feasible.

• Supply shocks from halvings: BTC's programmed supply reduction events—Bitcoin halvings—occur roughly every four years, cutting the issuance of new BTC in half. If demand remains constant or increases, these supply shocks could exert upward pressure on the cryptocurrency's price over the long term.

• Global fiat devaluation and geopolitical instability: Persistent inflation eroding the purchasing power of major fiat currencies, coupled with geopolitical crises or a loss of faith in traditional financial systems, could drive a flight to perceived safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, significantly boosting demand. Fears of hyperinflation or de-dollarisation could also accelerate this trend.

Don't Focus Too Much on Price Predictions

The allure of a million-dollar Bitcoin is powerful. The narrative is driven by colourful personalities like John McAfee, supported by reasoned arguments from investors like Cathie Wood, and underpinned by Bitcoin's unique properties and its potential role in a changing global economy. Macroeconomic factors like institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and fiat debasement could indeed pave the way.

However, chasing specific price predictions is a notoriously tricky game. Financial markets, especially volatile ones like crypto, are influenced by countless unpredictable factors. As we've highlighted in another article on our blog, even professional analysts struggle with accurate forecasting. Focusing on understanding Bitcoin's current drivers—sentiment, on-chain activity, macroeconomic context—is often more valuable than guessing its future price.

Extravagant predictions can generate excitement but also lead to unrealistic expectations or impulsive decisions. While the possibility of $1 million Bitcoin exists under certain conditions, it's crucial for investors to conduct their own research, understand the risks involved, and make decisions based on their own financial situation and long-term strategy, rather than relying solely on headline-grabbing forecasts.

Risk Disclosure

Trading or investing in crypto assets is risky and may result in the loss of capital as the value may fluctuate. VALR (Pty) Ltd is a licensed financial services provider (FSP #53308).

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.